Deep Thoughts

Cars We Loved

Those of us who went to high school in the late 50s coveted Detroit’s best offerings. Check out these cars, then see a few recollections that follow.

Cars We Loved - click here

57 Chev 
Bill Ashurst had a two-door sedan version. It was mfg’d as a salesman’s car so it had no back seat, only a flat floor covered with rubber matting.  We always teased Bill that he and his date could get back there and roll around. Instead, Bill rolled the car.

Bill also pranged his first car, a 49 Ford sedan. He was driving with Pat Ritz, out selling for George The Eggman. Somehow, Bill lost it in the hills of Danville, crossed the line, slammed into a hillside, and then popped back on the road. His door flew open, ejecting Bill into the ditch, where he scampered along on all fours at 30 mph. Pat careened across the seat, grabbed the wheel on his way by and took over the driving! Bill suffered multiple cuts and discomfort.

Bill also delivered for George The Eggman in a Divco milk truck. One drove this thing standing up, so the braking was via a big lever on the left.  As Bill pulled the lever down he also would push the steering wheel up with his other hand. Braking in the milk truck included an unintended left turn.

This was not Bill’s fault. I tried it and did the same thing.  And you haven’t lived until you have shifted a worn out milk truck while driving standing up.

57 Chev - Part 2
I was the delivery boy for Maguire’s Pharmacy in 1958/59. Bob Nye passed the job to me. Many fun vehicles, including a pair of matching 57 Chev two doors, each with the straight 6 and 3 speed manual.  I would drag race other guys in these while I was out delivering.

60 Plymouth Fury
Carolyn Kellaway had one of these. Had the push button tranny on the dash. Wallowed like a motorboat, dangerously grabby brakes and the steering wheel felt connected to nothing. No wonder Chrysler is finally going broke.

Carolyn and I once went on a double date in this car. Dick Telford went with her and I dated the daughter of first baseman Ferris Roy Fain. Michelle Fain was an American classic and ahead of her time. Built like the proverbial brick out building, she loved to prance around her neighborhood in a bikini with man’s shirt thrown over her shoulders. This was the late 50s and nobody had ever seen a bikini. I recall she wore a knit dress on our date and that was about it. The rest is a blur…

And oh yes: Deep bow to Carolyn for the 39 Buick project.

59 Impala
My dad bought 61 version of this car for my bro’s to drive. Sears had just started selling Michelin tires so we put those on it. The monster could corner.

58 Edsel Citation Convertible
Another drug store delivery boy memory. This is the exact model I drove as often as I could. Top down, Raybans, the sun creating scalp cancer thru my crew cut.

It had the shift buttons in the center of the steering wheel and a bathroom scale speedometer. One night out on Wiget I redlined it in 1st gear all the way to 69 mph. Then the engine blew up. Oh no!  I’m dead!! But I had only floated the valves, which quickly returned to service. That was a learning experience.

56 Chev 210
My folks had a station wagon of this model and color. I had read in The Reader's Digest that many jet fighter pilots had taught themselves to drive before high school by just taking out the family car. Hey, I could be a pilot. So I took off one night in the 8th Grade.  Did fine until that tree jumped out in front of me. $500.00 damages and killed the tree. But I drove home!

58 Chev Brookwood
Bought one of these station wagons very used at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland in 1965. Then drove it back to Calif. It was quite zippy. In one 3-hour stretch in Nevada I covered over 280 miles.

58 De Soto
Company car of Dick Telford’s dad.  I recall this thing had a 345 hemi with a 4 barrel carb. Back then one never honked, we simply “burned out”. Driving thru the WC Shopping Center Dick spotted some girls and floored it. Unfortunately, at that moment I was gulping a Hokie’s shake, which blasted into both my ears. 

Strange that Dick showed off for the girls. RIP, my friend.

59 Mercury
My Dad owned one a few years later than this. A freeze plug rotted out while I was driving Grandma and my wife Nannette in it in the Berkeley Hills. Pop drove it home, then fixed it himself. This is detailed in my family memoir, The Boy Mechanic.

1956 Cadillac Series 62 Coupe de Ville
My Dad owned this exact model. I think I used it one Christmas to deliver parcels for the post office and my  Brother Dick later used it to deliver newspapers to CC Times paperboys. This thing had a trunk.

1960 Imperial Crown Convertible
A senior year girl friend Debbie Dean’s mom had something similar: a white Chrysler 300F Convertible. This monster had a 413 ci V8 putting out 380 hp.  It was hard to jockey around on fire roads during after dark events. So I would have Debbie go on ahead with a flashlight to avoid going over a cliff. Not good in a convertible.

We really enjoyed her mom loaning us the car as Debbie was taller than I. When we went out in my 40 Ford coupe, we occasionally had to open both doors for “clearance”. (Those of you with hyper-memory will recall that my 40 was rodded up by Barry Bertanni. Debbie kept company with Barry at that time. She really liked that 40 Ford.)

1959 Ford Thunderbird
This was my car when I met my wife Nannette! After my 63 Rambler suffered a timing gear failure, I traded it broken to a friend who worked in a service station. He had just fixed up the tranny on a hardtop version of this same Thunderbird and gave it to me for $225 plus the Rambler.  (Don’t laugh at the Rambler. It came with a Chevy 348 V8 with a 4-barrel carb. Very fast although it looked dorky.)

1960 Dodge Dart Pioneer
This was not a good car. Way too big for its little 6 cyl engine. Rich Railton had a 61 or so Dodge Polara when I came back from college. 413 ci V8. It was what the CHP used. One night we were testing its aerial capabilities in the Walnut Knolls. We found that 70 mph over a hill on Blackwood Drive gave us a some air. It’s a bird, it’s a plane!

1957 Cadillac Eldorado Biarritz
I wish I had experience with this car, but I do not. I recall it came with some aluminum body parts, like my current little Lincoln LS. In fact my Lincoln has a solid aluminum V6 engine, block and heads both. And the engine is DOHC. I wonder if any of the owners actually know that?

52 Chev Styleline
My maternal grandfather was a Ford dealer before the Depression. After being royally screwed by Ford, he drove Chevies for the rest of his life. He had a 1950 version of this car. Whenever he drove, he chain smoked cigars down to their stubs, then finished them off in a corncob pipe.

On the weekends he parked on a sloping lane, which ran into Main Street. I discovered that depressing the clutch let the car roll forward until I pulled up my foot. So I put my younger brother Dick on the roof and Little Jimmy next to me on the front seat. We were having the greatest ride in little 2-foot segments when the adults spotted us. They were so scared we didn’t even get whipped. I was eight years old.

1954 Mercury Sun Valley
Strange to see this boring car here, but my Brother Jim had the two-door version. He and his pal Bruce would line it up heading south on the RR tracks where they crossed Walker near the WC Safeway. Then they would idle along in Low at 4 or 5 mph down the tracks, sitting on the roof, drinking beer and waving at the horsey girls in Danville. Ah the good old days…

Hide The Salami

Bread’s major ingredient is… taxes. Every raw material, process and delivery mode is taxed. Income, payroll, property, vehicle, gasoline: you name it. Such hidden taxes really Sock It To Us, don’t they?

Now the new administration is raising hidden taxation to an art form.

This horrendous additional hidden tax burden is being slipped to an unwitting American public. It is covert, exploitive, offensive and damaging to our on-going economic miracle. Hence the vulgar title, “Hide The Salami.”

This has all the earmarks of a Las Vegas magic act or an outright con game. There are set-ups, distractions, then rounds of applause as your wallet goes missing.

First, the set-up: no income tax increases on families earning less than $250,000. Regular folks think they would be better off. However, they will pay much more in taxes in other ways.

Second, the current distraction: AIG bonuses. The Administration has fanned an ember of envy into blazing class hatred. Legislated bonus clawbacks violate the US Constitution. Thoughtful people see Congress as ranting know-nothings. Unfortunately, populist pundits are driving average folks into a frenzy over something neither understands. Even our new President said, “I know a lot of you are outraged about [AIG bonuses] – rightfully so. I'm outraged too." A sorry sideshow.

Finally, the theft of your wallet.  Here are the chief culprits:

1. Carbon tax. By taxing politically incorrect sources of energy--high carbon emitters such as coal plants--those sources of energy would have to raise their prices or go out of business. Such pass-through taxes are hidden.

How much would this hidden tax be?  Estimates range from $80 to $300 billion a year.

But that is just the beginning. As costs go up in the US, more manufacturing will leave the US for locales without a carbon tax. This is exactly what happened 25 years ago with industries such as foundries. Those jobs moved to South America and Korea and were lost forever. Such job loss is a secondary hidden tax.

2. Green Energy support. This is a related but different energy tax issue. So-called green or renewable energy (wind turbines and solar) requires higher energy prices to survive. In a free market, we can simply chose a lower cost provider and are OK.

However, when the government “anoints” Green Energy as a winner, they jigger the system so Green Energy costs the same. This introduces inefficiencies into the marketplace. Consumers no longer get the best possible price. Instead they pay a hidden “inefficiency tax.” This tax is the difference between the market-determined price and what consumers have to pay. While difficult to determine, I expect our energy bills to go up at least 20%. This is in addition to the hidden carbon taxes, above.

3. Budget. The Administration’s budget assumes ridiculously optimistic economic growth rates. In fact, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just estimated that over the next decade the deficit would exceed Ten TRILLION dollars. That is $33,000 for each US citizen, child and adult. This will be paid for with a combination of inflation and higher taxes. These will be new taxes on top of what we are already paying.

4.  Healthcare. Instituting national healthcare will be the greatest bureaucratic change in the history of the US. Yet, the Administration simply adds the cost into their current budget as if every one understands it all and agrees. Absolutely not true!

Worse yet, the current Congress may ramrod through a new healthcare system using a filibuster-proof technique, known as “budget reconciliation.” This would throttle all discussion. The AIG funding distraction was stampeded through the same way. The country as a whole needs to spend months and months having experts and citizens alike--not legislators--hammer out a plan that will work. Otherwise, with a cruel twist of the Target store slogan, plan to “Pay More, Get Less.”

5. Lax enforcement on Illegal Immigrants (II). While special interests tout the contributions of II’s, the reality is that they are a net cost to the rest of us. This cost is their unfunded use of health, education, social services and our criminal justice systems. In California alone, II’s are a $6 billion annual drag on the budget.

Also, there are the remittances. Last year II’s sent almost $70 billion out of the US. Thus, II earnings do relatively little to help the US Economy. In fact, hiring an II is almost as bad as sending a job overseas. As such, II’s subvert the Stimulus Bill’s “Buy American” provisions. Also, every employed II demotes an American citizen to the unemployment line. Increases in US unemployment are hidden taxes.

6.  Social Security (SS). I worked since 1957. Am I getting a fair return? To answer that question, let us calculate the current value of my contribution. Using a conservative 5% annual return, my fund was “worth” $455,772 in 2008.

SS was designed as an insurance program, not welfare. As such, there is no “means testing.”  It is my money--held in trust--and it should be paid back to me. Assuming I live another 30 years, I should get back $29,649 annually.  This assumes the same 5% return and ignores inflation. But I am only getting back $20,916. The difference is $8,733.  This amount is my personal hidden tax. Over my (hopeful) 30 years left, that tax will be $261,990.

But wait, there’s more. As a SS recipient, I must also submit a “Social Security Benefits Worksheet.” No benefit to me, of course. The form calculates the amount of my SS benefit that is taxable.  Withdrawals from my rapidly shrinking IRA increase my taxes.  The form has a design flaw: there is no place to get credit for my $8,733 hidden tax.

This looks like small potatoes next to all those trillions. But these are my potatoes.

9.  Medicare Advantage HMO. Here’s another good one. After months of study and help from a trusted insurance advisor, I joined a Medicare Advantage HMO. In effect, I gave up some benefits and personal choice for reduced cost. Apparently 1 in 4 Medicare participants did the same.

But the new Budget Director Peter Orszag wants to end the plan. At current rates that will raise my premiums over $2,000 annually. This increase will be one more not-so-hidden tax on me.

10. Let’s not forget the new Education mandate: college for everyone. Sounds good at a political rally. But remember that the average IQ is 100. This is not Lake Woebegone where everyone is above average.

What would all these heretofore unColleged people learn? What they should have learned in high school? How to fund parties with student loan money? Brain surgery? As with most new current government programs, this sounds attractive in theory and has no details. But I am sure I’ll be paying.

Summary. There are MANY more such taxes being levied on the American public. Perhaps mailing Tax Day teabags to the White House has merit. Personally, my bag will symbolize a hidden tax: it will be used.

Chuck Carroll

Footnote on Global Warming and carbon tax. They are based on an unbroken chain of unproven premises:
a. Manmade carbon emissions are causing global warming, and
b. Such warming is dangerous, and
c. Carbon reduction will “correct” global warming, and
d. Taxing carbon in the US will reduce atmospheric carbon worldwide.

For a carbon tax to work, all of these improbables must turn out to be true.  This is statistically unlikely.

Nevertheless, Global Warming True Believers--often called Warmists--claim that this charade is a “risk worth taking.” Why? Because the much-hyped results could end civilization as we know it.

The pendulum is swinging against these “agenda scientists” and other Warmist fear mongers. Regular folks are questioning both the cost and justification. Warmists are nevertheless steadfast with evangelical zeal. Flying in the face of reason, their movement is faith-based.

This is the definition of a religion. Warmists are free to practice a religion. But when the government levies a huge tax--be it “cap and trade” or a “carbon surtax”--on all of us, it funds and therefore de facto establishes a National religion. This violates the First Amendment, which begins “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion…”

I look forward to the ACLU correcting this.

Dear Mr. President: Banking-Final Vers.

Thanks to all who read and commented on my letter to the president. The final version is at the end of this post.

Sample responses:

Pretty good. The asset-backed market is a big part of the reason lending is down. Keep up the good work. [Banker]

Right On, Mr. Citizen!! Keep writing and let me know when BO Twitters you. [Technology Executive]

A few years back the U.S. Government took over the Mustang Ranch Brothel in Nevada and it failed. How do we expect the government to run banks, when they cannot even run a whorehouse? [Successful Entrepreneur]

Your suggestion to keep banks simple enough to fail seems to be in [FDIC Chairman] Shelia Bair’s head too. Small enough to fail seems appropriate too.  [Pharmaceutical Ph.D.]

I agree with the content. I have no doubt that while BO knows your argument quite well, he will never tell us. His goal is much different than yours and mine--he wants control and power to destroy free market capitalism.

Surveys indicate that 25% of the public are so ignorant that they think the government has money on its own. Rewarding that 25% will give BO the evil power he wants. He will pay them with soon-to-be very inflated dollars

Many suspect that a group—headed by George Soros-- is the stuff inside that empty suit. Did BO make up the team or did the team make up him?

Efforts from people like you will hopefully make a difference. The mainstream media is in the tank with BO because they see him as their only hope to survive---they are finished without him.

My response here is not rooted in anger. It is rooted in fear. I am very concerned about what we have left for our children. [Banker]

This last comment seemed unlikely until yesterday. Then syndicated columnist—and former Chief Resident in Psychiatry at Massachusetts General Hospital--Charles Krauthammer said essentially the same thing.

Chuck

March 13, 2009

RE: U.S. Banking Solution

Dear Mr. President:

Last week I circulated these ideas among 150 friends and relatives. Many have banking backgrounds. Their support was unanimous.

I am embarrassed about the last two Treasury Secretaries. They attended my college, yet seem confused. Here are my suggestions:

§ No government run banks. The Secretaries confusion proves that government cannot and should not run any bank, anywhere. Guarantees, regulations or shut downs are fine. But if Treasury Secretary Geithner—a former CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—cannot figure this out, then no one in government can.

§ Stop the ridiculous “mark to market” rule on mortgages. If the borrower is paying, the market value of the underlying asset is meaningless. Also, the market value is really unknown until a regular sale, foreclosure sale or bankruptcy markdown occurs. Only then should the asset be revalued. This one rule change would instantly stop the global financial crisis.

§ Allow over extended borrowers to fail. It is unfair to force me to pay my neighbor’s mortgage. Of course this will be painful. But it will be much faster than the New Deal during which FDR dragged out the Depression for over ten years. You want to avoid that, don’t you?

§ Reregulate à la The Glass-Steagall Act. This law prohibited commercial banks from engaging in the investment business. Also, stop bank issuance of so-called mortgage backed securities and the like. President Clinton signed laws allowing all this. Banks are banks, not candy stores to be gamed by unscrupulous MBAs.

§ “Stick to your knitting.” Or, in this case, banking. Your healthcare, global warming, green energy and “tax fairness” agendas will provoke lively debate. Nevertheless, even discussing them detracts from getting U.S. banking back on its feet. Talk about these permanent changes to the America way of life now—with the economy in shambles— exposes your Administration’s diffuse thinking to our citizens, our international creditors and our enemies. Very dangerous.

Instead, tell the American people it is up to them. Once we are all working, paying our bills and living within our means, then you can introduce your agendas as the economy can bear it. Use your bully pulpit to lead us out of the wilderness.

I know you are committed to solving our financial crisis ASAP. This will do it.

Wishing you every success,

Charles Carroll

 

Dear Mr. President: Jobs

Dear Mr. President:

I know you are committed to reducing our unemployment. Here is the most cost effective solution.

We have learned that U. S. citizens will indeed take jobs that illegal immigrants are doing. Your ICE people recently arrested 28 illegals working at a Bellingham WA business. The next day hundreds of people applied for the 28 job openings. So Americans do want these jobs.

I understand that some 7.0 million illegal immigrants are working in the U. S. Also, 11.6 million U. S. citizens were unemployed in January 2009 for a 7.6 percent unemployment rate. So says your Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This presents a remarkable opportunity! You can kill two birds with one stone by
a. Enforcing U. S. employment law, which would get rid of Illegals, thus
b. Facilitating U. S. citizens’ increased employment. What could be simpler?

Naysayers will argue that removing Illegals is too expensive. But think about it: unable to work, most Illegals would simply go home. The balance could be deported.

Assume on average it costs $1,000 each to remove the 7.0 million illegal workers.  That would total $7 Billion. 

When all of the 7.0 million jobs are taken over by U. S. citizens the unemployment rate would drop to a rosy 3.0 percent. You would be a hero! Your reelection would be assured!!

Compared to recent government bailouts and “stimulus” expenditures, the $7 Billion is a drop in the bucket. In fact, it is less than the value of the earmarks in the current $410 billion spending bill in Congress. Simply cut out the pork and the Illegals jobs can be given back to our citizens at no out of pocket cost.  This is an exciting win-win for everybody.

If you like this, you will love my income tax simplification plan!

Wishing you every success,

Charles Q. Citizen

Going Forward

1-15-09

Deep Thoughts is changing its mission. Less politics and more general interest pieces.  This is going to be hard.

As I throttle back my political analysis, I wondered: Why did I care in the first place?

Most people really do not understand much. I know, I know, passionate voices are heard during the quadrennial elections. Loud as they are, these folks mostly parrot what their party or cable news channel tells them. They are just leaping onto the bandwagon. Many other citizens opt out and go shopping. Only a few attempt to ferret out the truth. So again, why me?

I attended Dartmouth College when Harvard University was sending its Best and Brightest to the new Kennedy Administration. In the spirit of Ivy League competition Dartmouth required pubLic policy courses of all undergraduates, regardless of their major. In our senior year, the course was called Great Issues.

Outside speakers lectured on the underpinnings of current events. Great Issues required plenty of reading, essay work and included a message: we privileged Dartmouth lads were expected to go forth with an understanding of how the world worked and the compulsion to make it better.

That compulsion kicks in whenever I encounter foolishness or venality in our elected public servants. That is, daily. Since I naturally tilt toward the sardonic, I honor a recently discovered message from our mentor:  “A discriminating irreverence is the creator and protector of human liberty." Mark Twain.

So as President Bush delivers his farewell speech, here are the only two issues I will discuss in the future: Global Warming and California’s Governance

1. Man-made global warming. The monster here is cost. If all the fixes to Global Warming are implemented, the world economy will be brought to its knees for decades to come. We need to be 99.9% sure there is a problem and that the fixes will actually solve it.

A few days ago the problem became less likely:

“Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels are now equal to those seen 29 years ago, when satellite record-keeping began. The data is being reported by the University of Illinois's Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions.” [from dailytech.com]

Global Warmists justify their doom on a scant 29 years of satellite sea ice data. This looks more and more like alchemy. My previous essay “Bamboozle” summarizes the Global Warming movement.

Two days ago, the situation got worse, however. Incoming Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took up the cause of Global Warming. During her confirmation hearing, she stated that global warming “threatens our very existence” etc., etc. Islamofascists seem a greater threat to me and something the State Department should engage. Perhaps Sen. Clinton is angling for an EPA appointment instead.

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what the Democrats are doing with Global Warming.

2. California Governance - Fiscal Incompetence.

Our state legislators’ inability to produce a budget is a recurring disgrace. I have imagined a referendum that would surely pass. Whenever the budget deadline is missed, every California State legislator would forfeit--forever--all pay and allowances until a budget is submitted. I would predict 90+ percent voter approval.

[Newsflash: This morning in his State of the State address Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called suspension of legislators’—and the governor’s—salaries and expense payments if the next budget is not passed by the constitutionally mandated deadline of June 15.

"If the people's work is not getting done, the people's representatives should not get paid either," said the governor. "You have to admit it is a brilliant idea." (Sacramento Bee) 

Ah, great minds…]

Just before Christmas I read that the State’s fiscal situation is worse than I knew.

• Since 1998 the CA budget has doubled from $72 to $145 Billion. This is twice the rate of population growth and inflation.

• CA has the highest income, sales, and gas taxes of all states.

• CA has the most generous welfare rules of any state. In fact, CA has not fully implement the welfare-to-work rules that Clinton approved.

• CA forfeits over $1 Billion a year in royalties by prohibiting oil drilling off the coast.

• Even with Prop 13 our property taxes are no less than the national average.

• CA fails to demand Federal reimbursement for

1. All unfunded Federal mandates, and
2. The never-ending cost of providing healthcare, education, welfare and criminal justice services to Illegal Immigrants. Reimbursement for Illegals alone would close most of California’s current budget shortfall.

Globally, we are now embroiled in an economic nightmare that began in Washington. After a  “tax and spend” Democrat administration, we have suffered through eight years of Republican “borrow and spend." Where is the discipline?

Worse yet, many voters feel that it is the government’s responsibility to narrow the wealth gap between the richest and the poorest citizens. As a believer in Self-Reliance, I believe that is the INDIVIDUAL’s job not the government.

The voters have spoken. We now have a government which is pledged to “fairness,” That is, income redistribution. This will harm the Successful while simultaneously locking poorer folks into their class forever. We will become like France but with worse food.

Going forward I leave it to others to figure this all out. Since I made predictions in my essay, “8 Myths of Obama,” I shall leave it up. The future will be interesting.

Keep thinking Deep Thoughts – Chuck Carroll

Afterthought. When I completed Economics 101, the professor told us “you now understand economics better than most members of Congress.”  I’ll say. Consider this clip of how our income tax system is “voluntary.”

Sen. Reid Explains Taxes

8 Myths of Obama

11-6-08

As all good Americans, I certainly wish President-Elect Obama the best. His electoral vote margin of victory demonstrates remarkable campaign organization. But campaigns are simple marketing exercises compared to the complexity of actually governing.

Of course, we are really ruled by special interests, the most powerful of whom are retired public officials. Consider that during the last eight years, ex-President Clinton and his wife reported taxable income in excess of $100,000,000.00. One wonders what percentage of this princely sum was a clandestine result of Clinton’s 395 Presidential pardons.

Consider our current status:

The country finds itself bogged down in a global economic crisis. This crisis was started right here, by Democrats who rewrote credit rules so unqualified borrowers—a high percentage of whom were African Americans—could obtain loans that they could not repay. Bankers then gamed the system and handed off their bad paper to Wall Street. Wall Streeters in turn created unfathomable financial instruments, which they peddled to the unwary, most of whom should have known better.

President-Elect Obama was chosen in large part because The People felt he was the best candidate to lead us out of this financial morass. There is no rational reason for this.

We now have a President-Elect who is both untested and who could not pass an FBI security screen due to his past associations. He has promised the moon, especially to young people and minorities who have never voted before. The Obama campaign accomplished all this through mythic hyperbole.

The following 8 Myths of Obama spring to mind. Each is followed by a prediction.

Myth 1. Obama will remove U. S. troops from combat zones. 

Obama began his campaign as a single-issue candidate: he would end the Iraq War. Since then the Iraq situation has improved somewhat. But Afghanistan is worse. More dangerous is Pakistan and they have nuclear weapons! Iran continues to terrify, while we are rearming Lebanon to help them combat Hamas incursions from Iran. Not a pretty picture. 

Prediction: One year after Obama’s inauguration, the U.S. will have more troops in harm’s way then we do now. But we will be winning and this will be a reason to elect more Democrats to Congress in 2010.

Myth 2. Obama will make us energy independent and solve Global Warming.

Obama plans to control all this with so-called carbon taxes on energy producers he has demonized. Coal-fired power plants are his main victims. The problem is that over 50% of our electricity is produced by these coal-fired plants. We have awesome coal reserves. Nuclear plants are clean, efficient and could solve the problem but they take years to bring on line. And they too have been demonized by the left. 

Further, global warming and cooling are really caused by changes on the Sun’s surface. The same solar activity that causes the aurora borealis—the Northern Lights—causes changes in our complex atmosphere, which in turn causes the Earth’s temperatures to go up and down. Also, the greenhouse gases surrounding the Earth are primarily water vapor. Human-caused carbon is about 1/4 percent of the total—an insignificant rounding error. Unfortunately, few Americans have sufficient science education to understand all this. So they are easily mislead by failed presidential candidates and other demagogues.

Back to the carbon tax. It will damage key industries and raise costs to consumers directly for their energy and indirectly for all products and service that require energy. When this is actually understood by the voters, there will be a huge backlash.

Prediction: At the end of Obama’s four-year term, neither a carbon tax nor any meaningful alternative energy solutions will have occurred. But billions of dollars will have been spent on “studies” for projects, which could be implemented “soon”. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.

Myth 3. Obama will solve the financial crisis. 

Obama is trained as an ultra-Liberal community activist. As such, his only solution is to extract taxes from the successful and give the money to the Downtrodden. In return the Downtrodden will not come to you house and scream at your family. This is called Fairness if you receive, Extortion if you are taxed.

Meanwhile, the financial crisis will solve itself. It will require home values to stabilize and lending to begin again by banks. Any governmental assistance will only prolong matters, then cause hyperinflation down the road.

Prediction: By the end of Obama’s four-year term, the financial crisis will have abated. There will have been little redistribution of wealth. Nevertheless, Obama will take credit. He will have had little to do with it. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.

Myth 4. Obama will provide universal healthcare.

This is rich. The healthcare industry may be the most lobbied industry in the United States. The lobbyists will never allow universal healthcare.  Also, the delivery of healthcare—especially the development of new treatments and drug therapies—is so complex, that fitting it into a one-size-fits-all program would take years.

If you do not believe this, find a person who has just turned 65. Ask them to describe to you signing up for the various parts of Medicare. It ain’t easy. 

Prediction: By the end of Obama’s four-year term, billions will have been spent on universal healthcare studies but no program will be in place. Look for the proposed program to be downsized into medical catastrophe insurance with sliding coverage determined by your net worth, income, party affiliation and ethnicity. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.

Myth 5. Obama will deliver for his base. 

If the global financial meltdown had not occurred, he might have been able to do some of this. But there will be insufficient money in the near term to do any of his extreme programs. Therefore, he will propose token laws that will placate his base but cost little.

Example 1. Facilitate union organization by eliminating secret ballots.
Example 2. Revive the so-called fairness doctrine. This doctrine demands “equal time” for opposing points of view on FCC-licensed broadcast venues. It is guaranteed to silence conservative talk radio.

Prediction: When Obama does these things, Example 1 will inflame organized small business. Example 2 will inflame fans of Rush Limbaugh. The Democrats will be further hurt by the disappointed first-time 2008 Democrat voters. Much of this group will cease voting in 2010, now believing the process is a sham. This all means Republicans will stage a come back in Congress in 2010.

Myth 6. Obama will bring everyone in the country together.

There is always a honeymoon period for any new President. Supporters and campaign workers have huge emotional investments in Obama’s success. Everyone feels good. This is the time to lock up the “warm tummy feeling” among The People.

Prediction: Unfortunately for Obama, I expect his honeymoon period to end long before he takes office. Say around next Friday. This will all come to a head when The People realize he is trying to orchestrate systems he does not understand and does not have the money to do it anyway. Obama will then spend the next four years trying to dig his way out of this hole. In 2012 he tell us he did a great job, so we will want to reelect him.

Myth 7. Obama will solve every need—real and imagined—for all African Americans.

The enslavement, then subsequent mistreatment of supposedly freed African Americans throughout the history of the United States is a national disgrace. Even today, this group has shorter life spans, higher infant mortality and huge over-representation in the ranks of never-married mothers and our criminal justice system. Examples: 50% of homicides are committed by Blacks and 70% of their children are illegitimate.

So can Obama get them to lower their blood pressure, take care of their babies and quit committing crimes? I suppose anything is possible. I have seen tears streaming down every black television personality’s cheeks this week. For the first time, they say—in the manner of Michelle Obama—that they feel proud and equal in this country.

If this joy and rapture reduces African American obesity, unprotected sex, convenience store holdups and drug dealing, we may have a winner.

Prediction: African American behavior statistics will miraculously improve near the end of Obama first term. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.

Myth 8. Obama will show his “backbone of steel” when he is first tested by an enemy.

The Testing Enemies have already begun. Just hours after Obama won, the Russians announced they will deploy missiles unless we pull back our planned antimissile systems in Eastern Europe.

Prediction: Obama is clueless about international Realpoltik. During the first bad thing, he will stop  to contemplate his principles and respond too slowly. This will embolden our enemies and things will get worse. Compare his response to McCain’s when the Ruskies invaded Georgia several months ago. [McCain spoke up, Obama wanted to “study the situation”.] Does anyone hear the word “draft”? This will be a reason to not reelect Obama.

 

If I had the funds, I would consider moving to Switzerland. In the German section, the trains are very clean and run on time. There is no graffiti. Every head-of-household is armed and maintains marksmanship proficiency. (Thank you, William Tell.)  I always thought that Walt Disney modeled the Epcot Center on Switzerland. Ah, to dream the impossible dream.

As you contemplate these myths, consider: have we passed the point of no return? In the words of a famous visitor:

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." Alexis de Tocqueville (1835)

Bamboozle

August 3, 2008

Bamboozle: to deceive by trickery for personal gain; to dupe; to hoodwink. May come from the French word embabuiner, literally "to make into a baboon."

There is new evidence on human-caused Global Warming. In scientific circles this is called “anthropogenic global warming,” or AGW for short.

I had previously thought that AGW was a mania or mass hysteria, like the Dutch tulip bubble (1637), the Salem witch trials (1692), or the Britney Spears obsession (most of the 21st Century).

But, no. Independent scientists now report that AGW is a carefully orchestrated bamboozle. If funded, AGW mediation would be the most expensive bamboozle the world has ever seen. Here are the facts:

Going through the motions of scientific inquiry, a United Nations chartered organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came up with a pre-ordained conclusion in 1990, that “observed [climate] temperature changes were ‘broadly consistent’ with greenhouse models.”

A second report in 1996 concluded “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” This last report was the underpinning of the infamous Kyoto Protocol on climate policy in 1997.

While touted as exciting new discoveries, these conclusions were rationalizations, all untrue. AGW was – and still is – a sham. Here is how it was unmasked.

All along thousands of scientists protested that true scientific methods were not being followed. In 2003 these protests reached a tipping point.

To determine what was really going on, some of these skeptical scientists formed the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). Their 50-page report was published in March 2008.

 Frederick Seitz, Past President of the National Academy of Sciences, wrote the preface. Prof. Seitz concludes:

“As NIPCC shows by offering an independent, non-governmental ‘second opinion’ on the ‘global warming’ issue, we do not currently have any convincing evidence or observations of significant climate change from other than natural causes.”

(A link to the full report follows this essay. Anyone who plans to vote and/or is an AGW proponent needs to read and understand this document.)

After reading the NIPCC report it is obvious that IPCC’s activities were “agenda science” with meaningless results. One such result is the on-going brouhaha over the aforementioned Kyoto Protocol. While many smaller nations have agreed to it, the United States has not. U.S. non-compliance continues to cause international tension. Yet these tensions are over something that is not real. Even our current presidential candidates have both been duped into “solving” AGW.

Elitist complaints pile on these spurious results. For example, one frequently hears that “the U.S. is only 5% of the world’s population but uses 23% of its energy.” Well folks, we also produce 27% of the world’s GDP. Since energy consumption is, in part, the fuel that drives our outstanding production, it sounds like the U.S. is the world’s best place to consume energy!

So what motivated the IPCC to jigger their science? The reasons is that their false conclusions promote many malodorous goals:

1. Extraction of money from all of us under the guise of “saving the climate.” These costs will be far more than our War against the Islamofascists or the transfer of U.S. wealth to oil-producing countries.
2. Economic windfall to The Few – duplicitous governments and subsidized “green” businesses.
3. Manipulation of science for personal gain. This is simply evil.
4. Forcing elitist “green behavior” on everyone with no effect whatsoever on global warming.

Of course, caring for the environment is noble. Some of us remember how all this started after World War II. People threw trash along our highways and some US rivers were so polluted that they caught on fire. Anti-littering and anti-pollution campaigns were launched. Over time these problems were solved.

Now we recycle, aim for sustainability, and do whatever we can to reduce air pollution. Fine things. But none of this has any effect – one way or another – on Global Warming. Global Warming, or cooling for that matter, can only be linked to human activity through junk science, faith-based reasoning and the say-so of demagogues and profiteers.

Let the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitor all this, as is their job. Global agenda groups, such as IPCC, should be ignored.

Educated citizens need to invest their energies into understanding real problems and advocating effective solutions. The less thoughtful among us need to be warned that they are being manipulated so they can refuse to go along with this foolishness.

We must drive the anthropogenic global warming Bamboozlers off the public stage. There are too many real problems to solve.

NIPCC report (below) explains the most likely causes of climate fluctuations.

link

Ahead of the Curve

January 11, 2008

Looking back, I was an Early Adopter of adventures that went on to become the norm. Here are a few examples of being ahead of the curve:

As a toddler I identified with recalcitrant star of The Poky Little Puppy. Later, I became famous as Procrastinus in high school Latin. “I’ll turn in my homework when I feel like it!” Sounds like Gen Y, doesn’t it?

In 1947 I was deeply affected by a reading of Dr. Seuss’ And to Think That I Saw It on Mulberry Street. I identified with the protagonist, whose story got better with each retelling. So I went on to tell stories, myself:

• Once in the first grade, my daily story audience of 5 and 6 year olds were so enraptured that we failed to return from the playground after lunch. Worried teachers found us in the bushes as I held forth.

• In the seventh grade, I found the suddenly attractive girls enjoyed my retelling of off-color jokes. Sample from a dude range exchange: “I just saw a cowboy packing a pair of 38’s.” “That’s nothing. I just saw a cowgirl go by with a pair of 44s!” Titter, titter.

• I diffused many violent teenage situations with humorous quips and stories. Better a punch line than a punch out.

• I would buttonhole high school friends on the street to regale them with condensed versions of The Canterbury Tales.

• In the Army, I would tell my colonel funny stories over coffee every morning. I discovered later that this kept me from being deployed to Viet Nam.

• I used stories to win jobs and women, to close sales, even to understand the Hierarchy of Knowledge. This last construct [which I came up with in the early 90s] starts with data processing and leads into philosophy to patch together Everything. It says that observed and recorded Nature becomes Data, when categorized becomes Information, when interpreted becomes Knowledge, when interrelated becomes Understanding, when contemplated becomes Wisdom, when lived becomes Godliness, which ultimately leads to the ability to create Nature. (Yes, this will be on the test.)

Identified with Ferdinand, The Bull who would rather lie under the cork trees than fight.

Escaped from a criminogenic Junior High in an Illinois factory town to a lily-white California suburban high school experience. (Thanks for moving us, Pop.) I identified with James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause.

Began a life-long career as a dilettante and enthusiast. If there was something to do, I tried it with gusto. Then I spun my experiences as entertainingly as possible. I identified with George Plimpton and the hipsters in Kerouac’s On The Road. Or maybe even Tom Hanks as Forest Gump.

Partied in high school. After seeing Crazy Larry escape from the police cruiser into the woods behind Carolyn Kelloway’s house, I identified with the Michael Cera character in Superbad.

Perfect four-year record of NEVER eating in the high school cafeteria. Instead, I patronized the walk-up window for junk food and strolled around. In NYC this is now known as “eating street”. Doubtless my youthful appearance is the result of consuming over a thousand preservative-laced Hostess Twinkies.

Off to an effete, stretch choice college. Heretofore only for the privileged, I was one of first regular folks to go. I identified with Richard Dreyfuss in American Graffiti. [Turned out Dr. Seuss went there, too.]

Bizarre college experiences. Example: waking up among plush curtains and plaster columns in NYC. How did I end up in a photographer’s studio? I identified with the protagonist in Dylan Thomas’ Adventures in the Skin Trade. More likely, I was creating a character for Animal House.

After graduating, I identified with Dustin Hoffman in The Graduate.

Served my country, yet avoided combat. What’s luck got to do with it? Maybe it was the lesson from Ferdinand, The Bull. Partied with divorced beauticians and mail order brides in the greater Tacoma area.

Quit smoking in 1967 by exercising to the point of nausea before lunch each day. (Thank God for handball.) Became anti-smoking zealot in the 70s, not allowing guests to smoke in our home. Now France has quashed those stinky Gallouises in all public places. Take that, Jean Paul Belmondo.

Became an entrepreneur when the label was only used in France. With 60s appropriate facial hair, I was called a Hip Capitalist. (I was born 9 months after Pearl Harbor, so of course I had a Japanese motorcycle shop. Good thing we beat ’em.)

Pioneer in the LTA Movement. LTA = Living Together Arrangement.

Became only a “serial monogamist.” Never made it to the “casual sex” level. Not for lack of trying, but too much of a romantic. However, I was able to delay marriage: too much of a hedonist.

One of only a few unmarried classmates at 10th high school reunion. One attendee asked my girlfriend, “Are you liberated?” Duh.

Raced motorcycles way passed the point of common sense. In fact, I Peter-Principled with multiple contusions, fractures and concussions. On my Triumph twin I identified with Steve McQueen in The Great Escape, not Marlon Brando in The Wild Ones. On my 400cc Suzuki motocrosser I identified with Evel Knievel, shouting “Oh no, not again!” (Knievel is well known as the inspiration for the Britney Spears chartbuster, “Opps, I Did It Again.”)

Was experimenting with Excess Leisure Time when I met future wife. Got picked as husband by this tall, pretty, brainy, cutting edge, bank officer woman who was a closet Alternative Lifestyler. Oh my! I believe she liked my stories.

Bought leather running shoes by Adidas long before jogging craze began. (Sister once told me ADIDAS is a mnemonic for All Day I Dream About Sex. Alright!)

Number Two in family home building business. I identified with oldest brother in Arrested Development.

Owned two homes in first year of marriage. No money down. Went on to be a pioneer in both adjustable rate mortgages and the Refi game. And why not? Who wants to leave their home equity to their children?

Experienced mid-life career change into Sales. Most folks where chaining themselves to their desks by then.

Delayed children for many years. Then attended Lamaze, LeLeche and actual delivery. Why? To have one perfect little pun'kin, whom we sent to private schools because only the best was good enough. Fortunately, the kid got my wife’s good looks and my math skills.

Usually did everything My Way, to varied degrees of success. Later learned this was a song by Frank Sinatra. Never identified with him,

Became wine maker with grapes from my estate. Actually, I found the vines growing in the front yard. The product is yet to be palatable.

Found work at the oldest software company in world. Eventually, organized the folks there to great success, which led to being acquired. This made so much money for so many people, that in the acquiring company’s final week, scores of sales people approached me at dinner one night at the Court of Two Sisters in New Orleans. They would kneel by my table, express their thanks and move on. I should have worn a ring for them to kiss.

Had trouble understanding that our kid was responsible for college admission, not me. This eventually turned out fine, but was a difficult learning experience for me.

Laid off in the Dot Com bust and never got back on the horse.

Blogged and published against Illegal Immigration before it became fashionable. In August 2007, the public overwhelmed their elected officials in agreement. Problem solved.

Realized in 2005 that human-generated greenhouse gases causing Global Warming was mass hysteria. Humans cause 0.28% of all the greenhouse gases surrounding the Earth. A rounding error! This silliness will fade into oblivion during Hillary’s first term. I have already moved on.
Link for Details

Way behind the curve for my age: learned that while parental concern goes on forever, control disappears long before you realize it.

Planning my Next Act, delaying the front porch and rocker as long as possible. Perhaps forever.