11-6-08
As all good Americans, I certainly wish President-Elect Obama the best. His electoral vote margin of victory demonstrates remarkable campaign organization. But campaigns are simple marketing exercises compared to the complexity of actually governing.
Of course, we are really ruled by special interests, the most powerful of whom are retired public officials. Consider that during the last eight years, ex-President Clinton and his wife reported taxable income in excess of $100,000,000.00. One wonders what percentage of this princely sum was a clandestine result of Clinton’s 395 Presidential pardons.
Consider our current status:
The country finds itself bogged down in a global economic crisis. This crisis was started right here, by Democrats who rewrote credit rules so unqualified borrowers—a high percentage of whom were African Americans—could obtain loans that they could not repay. Bankers then gamed the system and handed off their bad paper to Wall Street. Wall Streeters in turn created unfathomable financial instruments, which they peddled to the unwary, most of whom should have known better.
President-Elect Obama was chosen in large part because The People felt he was the best candidate to lead us out of this financial morass. There is no rational reason for this.
We now have a President-Elect who is both untested and who could not pass an FBI security screen due to his past associations. He has promised the moon, especially to young people and minorities who have never voted before. The Obama campaign accomplished all this through mythic hyperbole.
The following 8 Myths of Obama spring to mind. Each is followed by a prediction.
Myth 1. Obama will remove U. S. troops from combat zones.
Obama began his campaign as a single-issue candidate: he would end the Iraq War. Since then the Iraq situation has improved somewhat. But Afghanistan is worse. More dangerous is Pakistan and they have nuclear weapons! Iran continues to terrify, while we are rearming Lebanon to help them combat Hamas incursions from Iran. Not a pretty picture.
Prediction: One year after Obama’s inauguration, the U.S. will have more troops in harm’s way then we do now. But we will be winning and this will be a reason to elect more Democrats to Congress in 2010.
Myth 2. Obama will make us energy independent and solve Global Warming.
Obama plans to control all this with so-called carbon taxes on energy producers he has demonized. Coal-fired power plants are his main victims. The problem is that over 50% of our electricity is produced by these coal-fired plants. We have awesome coal reserves. Nuclear plants are clean, efficient and could solve the problem but they take years to bring on line. And they too have been demonized by the left.
Further, global warming and cooling are really caused by changes on the Sun’s surface. The same solar activity that causes the aurora borealis—the Northern Lights—causes changes in our complex atmosphere, which in turn causes the Earth’s temperatures to go up and down. Also, the greenhouse gases surrounding the Earth are primarily water vapor. Human-caused carbon is about 1/4 percent of the total—an insignificant rounding error. Unfortunately, few Americans have sufficient science education to understand all this. So they are easily mislead by failed presidential candidates and other demagogues.
Back to the carbon tax. It will damage key industries and raise costs to consumers directly for their energy and indirectly for all products and service that require energy. When this is actually understood by the voters, there will be a huge backlash.
Prediction: At the end of Obama’s four-year term, neither a carbon tax nor any meaningful alternative energy solutions will have occurred. But billions of dollars will have been spent on “studies” for projects, which could be implemented “soon”. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.
Myth 3. Obama will solve the financial crisis.
Obama is trained as an ultra-Liberal community activist. As such, his only solution is to extract taxes from the successful and give the money to the Downtrodden. In return the Downtrodden will not come to you house and scream at your family. This is called Fairness if you receive, Extortion if you are taxed.
Meanwhile, the financial crisis will solve itself. It will require home values to stabilize and lending to begin again by banks. Any governmental assistance will only prolong matters, then cause hyperinflation down the road.
Prediction: By the end of Obama’s four-year term, the financial crisis will have abated. There will have been little redistribution of wealth. Nevertheless, Obama will take credit. He will have had little to do with it. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.
Myth 4. Obama will provide universal healthcare.
This is rich. The healthcare industry may be the most lobbied industry in the United States. The lobbyists will never allow universal healthcare. Also, the delivery of healthcare—especially the development of new treatments and drug therapies—is so complex, that fitting it into a one-size-fits-all program would take years.
If you do not believe this, find a person who has just turned 65. Ask them to describe to you signing up for the various parts of Medicare. It ain’t easy.
Prediction: By the end of Obama’s four-year term, billions will have been spent on universal healthcare studies but no program will be in place. Look for the proposed program to be downsized into medical catastrophe insurance with sliding coverage determined by your net worth, income, party affiliation and ethnicity. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.
Myth 5. Obama will deliver for his base.
If the global financial meltdown had not occurred, he might have been able to do some of this. But there will be insufficient money in the near term to do any of his extreme programs. Therefore, he will propose token laws that will placate his base but cost little.
Example 1. Facilitate union organization by eliminating secret ballots.
Example 2. Revive the so-called fairness doctrine. This doctrine demands “equal time” for opposing points of view on FCC-licensed broadcast venues. It is guaranteed to silence conservative talk radio.
Prediction: When Obama does these things, Example 1 will inflame organized small business. Example 2 will inflame fans of Rush Limbaugh. The Democrats will be further hurt by the disappointed first-time 2008 Democrat voters. Much of this group will cease voting in 2010, now believing the process is a sham. This all means Republicans will stage a come back in Congress in 2010.
Myth 6. Obama will bring everyone in the country together.
There is always a honeymoon period for any new President. Supporters and campaign workers have huge emotional investments in Obama’s success. Everyone feels good. This is the time to lock up the “warm tummy feeling” among The People.
Prediction: Unfortunately for Obama, I expect his honeymoon period to end long before he takes office. Say around next Friday. This will all come to a head when The People realize he is trying to orchestrate systems he does not understand and does not have the money to do it anyway. Obama will then spend the next four years trying to dig his way out of this hole. In 2012 he tell us he did a great job, so we will want to reelect him.
Myth 7. Obama will solve every need—real and imagined—for all African Americans.
The enslavement, then subsequent mistreatment of supposedly freed African Americans throughout the history of the United States is a national disgrace. Even today, this group has shorter life spans, higher infant mortality and huge over-representation in the ranks of never-married mothers and our criminal justice system. Examples: 50% of homicides are committed by Blacks and 70% of their children are illegitimate.
So can Obama get them to lower their blood pressure, take care of their babies and quit committing crimes? I suppose anything is possible. I have seen tears streaming down every black television personality’s cheeks this week. For the first time, they say—in the manner of Michelle Obama—that they feel proud and equal in this country.
If this joy and rapture reduces African American obesity, unprotected sex, convenience store holdups and drug dealing, we may have a winner.
Prediction: African American behavior statistics will miraculously improve near the end of Obama first term. This will be a reason to reelect Obama.
Myth 8. Obama will show his “backbone of steel” when he is first tested by an enemy.
The Testing Enemies have already begun. Just hours after Obama won, the Russians announced they will deploy missiles unless we pull back our planned antimissile systems in Eastern Europe.
Prediction: Obama is clueless about international Realpoltik. During the first bad thing, he will stop to contemplate his principles and respond too slowly. This will embolden our enemies and things will get worse. Compare his response to McCain’s when the Ruskies invaded Georgia several months ago. [McCain spoke up, Obama wanted to “study the situation”.] Does anyone hear the word “draft”? This will be a reason to not reelect Obama.
If I had the funds, I would consider moving to Switzerland. In the German section, the trains are very clean and run on time. There is no graffiti. Every head-of-household is armed and maintains marksmanship proficiency. (Thank you, William Tell.) I always thought that Walt Disney modeled the Epcot Center on Switzerland. Ah, to dream the impossible dream.
As you contemplate these myths, consider: have we passed the point of no return? In the words of a famous visitor:
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." Alexis de Tocqueville (1835)
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